Study on relationships between climate-related covariates and pipe bursts using evolutionary-based modelling

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DOIResolve DOI: http://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2013.082
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TypeArticle
Journal titleJournal of Hydroinformatics
ISSN1464-7141
Volume16
Issue4
Pages743757; # of pages: 15
AbstractResearchers extensively studied external loads since they are widely recognized as significant contributors to water pipe failures. Physical phenomena that affect pipe bursts, such as pipeenvironment interactions, are very complex and only partially understood. This paper analyses the possible link between pipe bursts and climate-related factors. Many water utilities observed consistent occurrence of peaks in pipe bursts in some periods of the year, during winter or summer. The paper investigates the relationships between climate data (i.e., temperature and precipitationrelated covariates) and pipe bursts recorded during a 24-year period in Scarborough (Ontario, Canada). The Evolutionary Polynomial Regression modelling paradigm is used here. This approach is broader than statistical modelling, implementing a multi-modelling approach, where a multiobjective genetic algorithm is used to get optimal models in terms of parsimony of mathematical expressions vs. fitting to data. The analyses yielded interesting results, in particular for cold seasons, where the discerned models show good accuracy and the most influential explanatory variables are clearly identified. The models discerned for warm seasons show lower accuracy, possibly implying that the overall phenomena that underlay the generation of pipe bursts during warm seasons cannot be thoroughly explained by the available climate-related covariates.
Publication date
PublisherIWA Publishing
LanguageEnglish
AffiliationNational Research Council Canada; Construction
Peer reviewedYes
NPARC number21275461
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Record identifier4b8ea660-3027-42b6-918e-767f15122e6b
Record created2015-07-14
Record modified2016-05-09
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