Probabilistic risk analysis of corrosion associated failures in cast iron water mains

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DOIResolve DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2003.12.007
AuthorSearch for: ; Search for: ; Search for:
TypeArticle
Journal titleReliability Engineering & System Safety
Volume86
Issue1
Pages110; # of pages: 10
Subjectcorrosion, reliability, factor of safety, Monte Carlo simulations, risk, uncertainty, cast iron, water mains; Water mains; Cast iron
AbstractThis paper proposes a method using probabilistic risk analysis for application to corrosion associated failures in grey cast iron water mains. External corrosion reduces the capacity of the pipeline to resist stresses. When external stresses exceed the residual ultimate strength, pipe breakage becomes imminent, and the overall reliability of a water distributionnetwork is reduced. Modelling stresses and external corrosion acting on a pipe involves uncertainties inherent in the mechanistic/statistical models and their input parameters. Monte Carlo (MC) simulations were used to perform the probabilistic analysis. The reduction in the factor of safety (FOS) of water mains over time was computed, with a failure defined as a situation in which FOS becomes smaller than 1. The MC simulations yielded an empiricalprobability density function of time to failure, to which a lognormal distribution was fitted leading to the derivation of a failure hazard function. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the contribution of corrosion parameters to the variability of time to failure was more significant than the combined contributions of all other parameters. Areas where more research is needed are identified.
Publication date
LanguageEnglish
AffiliationNRC Institute for Research in Construction; National Research Council Canada
Peer reviewedYes
NRC number45730
15010
NPARC number20378609
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Record identifier546c40e7-4aff-4af0-889a-6c51d892d6fd
Record created2012-07-24
Record modified2016-05-09
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