Probabilistic risk analysis for aircraft structures with limited in-service damages

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Proceedings title28th Congress of the International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences 2012, ICAS 2012
Conference28th Congress of the International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences 2012, ICAS 2012, 23 September 2012 through 28 September 2012, Brisbane
Pages20162026; # of pages: 11
SubjectAircraft structure; CP-140; Damage tolerance analysis; Maintenance Action; Operational life; Probabilistic risk analysis; Probability of failure; Structural risks; Aerodynamics; Aircraft; Aircraft manufacture; Airframes; Fits and tolerances; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Location based services
AbstractThis paper presents some recent results of NRC research on risk assessment for aircraft structures. First, this paper briefly reviews the Canadian Forces (CF) risk assessment requirements related to aircraft structural life assessment. Because the single flight probability of failure (SFPOF) (instantaneous failure rate) is an important parameter used in aircraft risk assessment, a critical review of different SFPOF definitions and calculations is presented. As the size of the CF aircraft fleet is relatively small, one common issue encountered during risk assessment is that only a limited number of inservice damage findings are available. Several methods are discussed for preparing input data, especially the initial crack size distribution (ICSD), from small samples for structural risk analysis. To demonstrate one of the in-service damage based methods, a risk analysis case study is presented, in which limited in-service damage findings were used to calculate the SFPOF at a wing location, in support of the CF risk-based decision-making on maintenance actions and the operational life limit.
Publication date
AffiliationNational Research Council Canada (NRC-CNRC); Aerospace (AERO-AERO)
Peer reviewedYes
NPARC number21269521
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Record identifier58f0707d-9dcc-4760-b404-54381f23d444
Record created2013-12-12
Record modified2016-05-09
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