Considering time-dependent factors in the statistical prediction of water main breaks

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ConferenceAmerican Water Works Association Infrastructure Conference: 12 March 2000, Baltimore, Maryland
Pages112; # of pages: 12
SubjectWater mains
AbstractThe effective planning of water distribution system renewal requires accurate quantification of the structural deterioration of water mains. As typical water distribution systems comprise hundreds and even thousands of buried pipes, direct inspection of all of them is often prohibitively expensive. Identifying water main breakage patterns over time is an effective and inexpensive alternative to measure the structural deterioration of a water distribution system. Environmental and operational conditions exert stresses on the pipe. Pipe breakage occurs when these stresses exceed its structural resiliency. While the structural deterioration of the pipe is generally considered to be a steady, monotonous process, some of the environmental and operational stresses could be time-dependent, steady or transient. These stresses result in ?noisy? breakage rate data sets that reduce the accuracy of establishing the underlying deterioration(ageing) patterns, especially in small data sets. If the cause of these random stresses can be identified and attributed to a measurable phenomenon (e.g., temperatures, precipitation, etc.), their ?noisy? effect can be neutralised to obtain a more accurate pipe deterioration pattern.
Publication date
AffiliationNRC Institute for Research in Construction; National Research Council Canada
Peer reviewedYes
NRC number42663
NPARC number20331186
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Record identifier6b4f32fd-3051-4076-9af3-7478e5fd33b7
Record created2012-07-18
Record modified2016-05-09
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