Simulation of Probabilistic Averaging in Ice Load Estimation

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Proceedings titleProceedings 18th International Symposium on Ice, IAHR’06
Pages215222; # of pages: 8
AbstractThis paper mainly focuses on establishing a probabilistic model to explore the relationship between local pressures and the global pressure. Both spatial and temporal correlations among the local pressures are considered in the study. A vector autoregressive model (VAR) is applied in this research to include these correlations. The global contact area is divided into a group of local areas. The model is used to illustrate the probabilistic averaging effect from local pressure to global pressure. The duration effect in which a higher load is likely to result from a longer interaction process is also showed using this model. The model is also used to explore the pressure-area relationship and pressure-aspect ratio relationship. The results imply that using the pressure-area relationship and the pressure-aspect ratio relationship alone may not be sufficient for global load estimation.
Publication date
AffiliationNational Research Council Canada; NRC Canadian Hydraulics Centre
Peer reviewedNo
NPARC number12340987
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Record identifier827040f6-fe24-4435-a543-c2f40bc7b1f0
Record created2009-09-11
Record modified2016-05-09
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