An Evidential reasoning approach to evaluate intrusion vulnerability in distribution networks

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ConferenceCCWI 2005: 05 September 2005, Exeter, United Kingdom
Pages16; # of pages: 6
Subjectintrusion, water distribution networks, evidential reasoning, simplex plot, body of evidence and uncertainties; Leak detection
AbstractIntrusion, a primary mechanism of water quality failures in distribution networks, has accounted for approximately 15% of the total documented cases of waterborne illnesses in the Unites States in the last 30 years. Intrusion through water mains may occur during maintenance and repair events, through broken pipes and gaskets in the presence of contaminated soil and/or cross-connections. The potential of contamination through backflow or through leaky pipes increases whenever the water pressure in a pipe is very low or negative. This can occur when the pipe is de-pressurized for repair or when it is used to extinguish fire or during episodes of transient pressures. Intrusion of contaminants into water distribution networks requires the simultaneous occurrence of three elements; a contamination source, a pathway and a driving force. Each of these elements provides an independent body of evidence (typically incomplete and non-specific) which can give hint(s) of the occurrence of intrusion into distribution networks. Inference using traditional Bayesian analysis involves assumptions in case of incomplete information and partial ignorance. Evidential reasoning, also called Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory, has proved very useful in this situation and has the ability to incorporate both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the inference mechanism. The bodies of evidence from contamination source(s), intrusion pathway(s) and driving force(s) are mapped over a ?frame of discernment' of vulnerability of intrusion. Subsequently the DS rule of combination is applied to make an inference on the occurrence of intrusion. The implementation of the evidential reasoning method to assess vulnerability to intrusion in distribution networks is demonstrated with the help of an example.
Publication date
AffiliationNRC Institute for Research in Construction; National Research Council Canada
Peer reviewedYes
NRC number48344
NPARC number20377198
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Record identifier8ba50ec0-4ddf-460d-b8f6-ec276c0728e4
Record created2012-07-24
Record modified2016-05-09
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