Possibilistic approach for consideration of uncertainties to estimate structural capacity of ageing cast iron water mains

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DOIResolve DOI: http://doi.org/10.1139/L06-042
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TypeArticle
Journal titleCanadian Journal of Civil Engineering
Volume33
IssueAugust 8
Pages10501064; # of pages: 15
Subjectjointed water mains; Winkler model; pipe-soil interaction; elasto-plastic soil; uncertainty analysis; fuzzy arithmetic; and possibility theory; Water mains; Cast iron
AbstractDrinking water distribution networks from essential components of all urban centres. Water mains buried in the soil-backfill are exposed to different deleterious reactions, with the result being that the design factor of safety may significantly degrade, leading to structural failure. In particular, metallic distribution and trunk mains are subject ot corrosion. Proactive pipeline management, which entails timely maintenance, repair, and renovation, can increase the service life of pipes. Several nondestructive evaluation techniques have recently become available to measure the remaining wall thickness of metallic pipes. In this paper, a previously developed analytical model based on Winkler-type pipe-soil interaction (WPI) is cast in a "possibilistic" framework to translate the remaining pipe wall thickness to current structural factor of safety. The WPSI model takes into consideration external (traffic, frost, etc.) and internal (operating and surge pressures) loads, temperature changes, and loss of bedding support and the reduction of pipe structural capacity in the presence of corrosion pits. Uncertainties associated with the input data-parameters are handled using fuzzy arithmetic operations and interpreted through possibility theory. A Monte Carlo type random sampling method is carried out for performing sensitivity analyses to identify the critical data-parameters that merit further investigation.
Publication date
LanguageEnglish
AffiliationNRC Institute for Research in Construction; National Research Council Canada
Peer reviewedYes
NRC number47727
17003
NPARC number20378095
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Record identifier96cd439b-c792-4e35-bc0b-29ffaabf0ffa
Record created2012-07-24
Record modified2016-05-09
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