Estimating risk of contaminant intrusion in distribution networks using Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence

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DOIResolve DOI: http://doi.org/10.1080/10286600600789276
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TypeArticle
Journal titleCivil Engineering and Environmental Systems
Volume23
IssueSeptember 3
Pages129141; # of pages: 13
Subjectcontaminant intrusion, water distribution networks, evidence theory, Dempster-Shafer theory, risk, GIS, simplex plot, uncertainty
AbstractIntrusion of contaminants into water distribution networks requires the simultaneous presence of three elements; contamination source, pathway and driving force. The existence of each of these elements provides ?partial' evidence (typically incomplete and non-specific) to the occurrence of contaminant intrusion into distribution networks. Evidential reasoning, also called Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory, has proved useful to incorporate both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the inference mechanism. The application of evidential reasoning to assess risk of contaminant intrusion is demonstrated with the help of an example of a single pipe. The proposed approach can be extended to full-scale water distribution network to establish risk-contours of contaminant intrusion. Risk-contours using GIS may help utilities to identify sensitive locations in the water distribution network and prioritize control and preventive strategies.
Publication date
LanguageEnglish
AffiliationNRC Institute for Research in Construction; National Research Council Canada
Peer reviewedYes
NRC number45408
18132
NPARC number20377798
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Record identifierce3247fc-615c-40b6-b52f-4fcd08a6ef67
Record created2012-07-24
Record modified2016-05-09
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