Analysis and modelling of surface Urban Heat Island in 20 Canadian cities under climate and land-cover change

  1. Get@NRC: Analysis and modelling of surface Urban Heat Island in 20 Canadian cities under climate and land-cover change (Opens in a new window)
DOIResolve DOI:
AuthorSearch for: ; Search for: ; Search for:
Journal titleJournal of Environmental Management
SubjectUrban Heat Island; Canada; elevation; city-size; SP model
AbstractSurface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) is an urban climate phenomenon that is expected to respond to future climate and land-use land-cover change. It is important to further our understanding of physical mechanisms that govern SUHI phenomenon to enhance our ability to model future SUHI characteristics under changing geophysical conditions. In this study, SUHI phenomenon is quantified and modelled at 20 cities distributed across Canada. By analyzing MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensed surface temperature at the cities over 2002–2012, it is found that 16 out of 20 selected cities have experienced a positive SUHI phenomenon while 4 cities located in the prairies region and high elevation locations have experienced a negative SUHI phenomenon in the past. A statistically significant relationship between observed SUHI magnitude and city elevation is also recorded over the observational period. A Physical Scaling downscaling model is then validated and used to downscale future surface temperature projections from 3 GCMs and 2 extreme Representative Concentration Pathways in the urban and rural areas of the cities. Future changes in SUHI magnitudes between historical (2006–2015) and future timelines: 2030s (2026–2035), 2050s (2046–2055), and 2090s (2091–2100) are estimated. Analysis of future projected changes indicate that 15 (13) out of 20 cities can be expected to experience increases in SUHI magnitudes in future under RCP 2.6 (RCP 8.5). A statistically significant relationship between projected future SUHI change and current size of the cities is also obtained. The study highlights the role of city properties (i.e. its size, elevation, and surrounding land-cover) towards shaping their current and future SUHI characteristics. The results from this analysis will help decision-makers to manage Canadian cities more efficiently under rapidly changing geophysical and demographical conditions.
Publication date
AffiliationConstruction; National Research Council Canada
Peer reviewedYes
NPARC number23002461
Export citationExport as RIS
Report a correctionReport a correction
Record identifier76e2b971-a243-4be9-ade8-6ee802ae39cd
Record created2017-11-14
Record modified2017-11-14
Bookmark and share
  • Share this page with Facebook (Opens in a new window)
  • Share this page with Twitter (Opens in a new window)
  • Share this page with Google+ (Opens in a new window)
  • Share this page with Delicious (Opens in a new window)
Date modified: